National Report on Affordable Housing Preservation Released

person A.J. Johnson today 06/07/2020

A Joint report of the National Low Income Housing Coalition (NLIHC) and the Public and Affordable Housing Research Corporation (PAHRC) on the affordable housing preservation situation and needs in the United States was released in late May. The report focuses on the challenge of preserving the existing federally assisted affordable housing stock.

Federally-assisted affordable housing provides stability for 4.9 million low-income renter households. The need for affordable rental homes, however, still far outweighs the supply. Fewer than four affordable rental homes are available to every ten extremely low-income renter households, leaving a national shortage of 7 million rental homes. Preserving and expanding the nation’s federally-assisted housing stock will require adequately funding affordable housing programs, adopting policies that support long-term affordability, developing local preservation strategies, and boosting capacity for affordable housing preservation.

Introduction

  • The United States faces a shortage of approximately 7 million affordable rental homes.
  • Without government assistance, the private sector cannot produce adequate numbers of affordable housing.
  • From 2012 - 2017, the private market has lost more than 3 million affordable rental units.
  • At the same time, there is chronic underinvestment in federal affordable housing programs.
  • Current federal programs for affordable rental housing are tenant-based and project-based and are administered by HUD, RD, and the IRS.
    • Tenant-based subsidies (e.g., housing choice vouchers) are demand-side subsidies allocated directly to tenants to subsidize their rents in the private market up to a modest payment standard.
    • Project-based subsidies, such as the LIHTC, PBRA, and Public Housing, are supply-side subsidies that provide affordable housing owners with capital or operating support to create and maintain the affordable housing stock.
      • About 4.9 million rental units receive federal project-based subsidies - 10% of the rental housing stock in the U.S.

Primary Federally Funded Project-Based Subsidy Programs

Program                                                                      Units Assisted in 2019

Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC)                  2,413,156

Section 8 PBRA                                                           1,403,603

Public Housing                                                            948,021

Section 515                                                                 383,520

Section 521                                                                 270,812

HOME Program                                                          261,718

HUD Insured Mortgages                                             176,097

Section 538                                                                 54,540

Section 202 Direct Loan                                             39,737

State HFA Section 236                                               35,284

Other programs that provide affordable housing include:

  • Community Development Block Grants (CDBG)
  • National Housing Trust Fund (HTF)
  • Housing Opportunities for Persons with Aids (HOPWA)
  • Project-based vouchers (PBVs)

Preservation Risks

There are currently three basic risks to the preservation of existing affordable housing:

  1. Expiration or exit risk;
  2. Depreciation; and
  3. The lack of appropriations

Exit risk refers to the degree to which federally assisted housing is at risk of no longer being subject to program requirements (e.g., expiring extended use agreements for LIHTC projects). With the exception of Public Housing, all federal project-based subsidies carry restrictions on affordability and eligibility that are limited in duration.

  • Research shows that a for-profit owner of a rental property with a Section 8 PBRA contract in a tight rental market is more likely to not renew a subsidy contract and reposition a property as market rate.

Depreciation risk refers to the degree to which the financial stability and physical quality of federally subsidized housing can deteriorate over time. This risk can be greater than exit risk to the preservation of assisted housing. Due to the low rent paid by residents, owners of these properties require ongoing operating or capital support - or both - to maintain the financial stability and physical viability of the housing.

Appropriations risk refers to the degree to which federally subsidized housing depends on Congress to provide continual funding in order to continue to operate as affordable housing. In some programs, such as LIHTC, subsequent credit allocations may be the only way to extend eligibility and affordability restrictions within a program.

Between 2000 and 2015, Congress cut the Public Housing Capital fund by more than 50% and it has only twice provided adequate funding levels for the operating fund since 2002. This has led to the loss of more than 250,000 Public Housing units since the mid-1990s and a capital needs backlog of $70 billion. 15% of current Public Housing units have failing physical inspection scores and are in need of immediate capital infusions.

Why Preservation Must be the Cornerstone of Any Affordable Housing Strategy

New development alone cannot offset the loss of the existing affordable housing stock.

LIHTC, the largest affordable housing production program, does not assist tenants of properties exiting the program. Preservation may be the only option to ensure housing stability for many LIHTC tenants so long as existing eligibility and affordability requirements are maintained in the process.

The issues that make it difficult to replace housing in high-cost and exclusionary neighborhood make preservation more cost-effective than new construction. In disadvantaged neighborhood, preservation has the potential to prevent further disinvestment.

Preservation also presents a clear opportunity to retrofit older federally-assisted housing for energy-efficiency, lowering greenhouse gas emissions and figuring in a larger national strategy to combat climate change. Further research is needed to fully compare the environmental impact of new construction and preservation (especially preservation that involves rehabilitation).

Finally, preservation prevents the loss of units from the federally assisted stock. Preservation must play a central role if federal resources are to be expanded and the challenges of the affordable housing crisis are to be met.

Federally-Assisted Housing Stock

In 2019, 81,007 federally-assisted properties (4.9 million units) received federal project-based assistance. This does not include:

  • Community Development Block Grants (CDBG)
  • National Housing Trust Fund (HTF)
  • Moderate Rehabilitation
  • McKinney Vento Permanent Housing
  • Housing Opportunities for Persons with Aids (HOPWA)
  • Tax-Exempt Bonds
  • Project-based vouchers (PBVs)

LIHTC supports 49% of all project-based federally-assisted rental homes making it the largest affordable housing subsidy program, followed by Section 8 PBRA (29%), Public Housing (19%), and USDA loan programs (9%). Tenants also frequently use HCVs at project-based federally-assisted rental home, further boosting the reliance on multiple funding sources.

The percentage of federally-assisted housing varies greatly by state. Federally-assisted rental homes make up a larger percentage of the rental stock in the Northeast and Midwest. States with 15% or more of the rental stock being federally-assisted are Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Mississippi, Minnesota, and South Dakota.

LIHTC, HOME, CDBG, and the HTF are the only federally funded programs actively financing new construction of affordable housing. However, due to the pressure to preserve existing housing, fewer new units are being built.

Federally-Assisted Housing Stock at Risk

Affordability restrictions are set to expire for 299,303 (6%) rental homes between January 2020 and December 2024. This figure will increase in future years. North and South Dakota have the greatest percentage of assisted housing expiring.  Overall, federally-assisted homes with subsidies expiring in the next five years are concentrated in California (34,215), New York (30,410), Florida (16,373), and Texas (16,121). Currently, most of the expirations are for Project-Based Section 8 Contracts, but in 2025, the LIHTC program will pass Section 8 for the most expiring low-income use requirements.

Many federally-assisted homes expiring in the next five years demonstrate factors that can increase exit risk:

  • 79% did not receive subsidy for capital improvements in the past 20-years;
  • 53% are owned by for-profit owners (which are more likely to exit affordability programs);
  • 18% were built before 1975;
  • 7% have failing REAC scores; and
  • 58% suffer from two or more of these risk elements.

Trends in Preservation

Ensuring adequate funds for the preservation of existing federally-assisted properties can keep these homes affordable to extremely low-income families for years to come and can save construction costs in the long run.

Programs that provide funding to meet the capital needs of properties and incentives for owners to renew their rental assistance contracts (i.e., not exit the affordable housing stock) support the preservation of affordable homes. Programs that are currently preserving affordable housing include:

  • LIHTC
    • Finances the construction, rehabilitation, and preservation of affordable housing for low-income individuals.
    • Preserves approximately 32,000 units annually.
  • HOME
    • Block grant that finances activities to increase and preserve the supply of affordable housing.
    • Preserves up to 7,000 units annually.
  • National HTF
    • Block grant that finances the construction, rehabilitation, and preservation of affordable housing.
    • Preserves less than 700 units annually.
  • CDBG 
    • Block grant that finances activities benefitting low and moderate income households that improve housing, living environments, and economic opportunity.
    • Contributes to the preservation of publicly owned units.

Other programs contribute limited numbers of preservation units annually, including:

  • Mark-to-Market;
  • Multifamily Housing Preservation & Revitalization (MPR) Demonstration Program;
  • Section 515;
  • Project-based vouchers;
  • Section 202 Capital Advance; and
  • Section 811 Capital Advance.

LIHTC and HOME, two of the largest active federally funded subsidy programs, provide resources for preserving the existing affordable rental housing stock in need of capital investment. Depending on the year, 35% to 62% of units financed by the LIHTC program between 2003 and 2012 were for existing affordable properties.

Strategies that Can Expand & Preserve Affordable Housing

The study makes a number of recommendations regarding how to address the preservation problems.

  • Fully fund the national HTF.
  • Expand the LIHTC program, incorporating key reforms.
  • Fully fund Public Housing capital and operating funds.
  • Expand funding for rural housing programs, including Section 521, 515, and MPR.
  • Expand state and locally funded subsidy programs.
  • Require LIHTC properties to waive the right to Qualified Contracts.
  • Increase the notification requirements when an owner opts out.
  • Incentivize or require owners to keep their property affordable beyond the federally mandated minimum.
  • Prioritize funding opportunities for mission-driven developers committed to preserving long-term affordability.
  • Establish right-of-first refusal policies.
  • Build a data-base of at-risk properties.
  • Create a preservation plan.
  • Build preservation networks.
  • Provide technical assistance on preservation.
  • Award pre-development funds.

While it is certainly aspirational, this report does provide a blueprint on how to increase the preservation of affordable housing in the United States. While many of the proposals are probably not politically feasible, others may well be put into place. For example, expansion of the LIHTC program is very possible, as is the expansion of state and local programs (although growth in state and local programs will probably be delayed due to the crushing financial burden imposed by COVID-19).

Latest Articles

Navigating Solicitation Bans in Apartment Communities: Religious and Political Canvassing Rights

Understanding the Legal Landscape Property managers and apartment community owners often implement solicitation bans to protect residents from unwanted disturbances. However, these policies can create complex legal scenarios when religious groups and political campaigns seek to canvas on the property. The distinction between commercial solicitation and noncommercial canvassing creates important legal boundaries that property managers should understand. The Constitutional Framework The U.S. Supreme Court has consistently ruled that noncommercial canvassing including religious outreach and political campaigning receives substantial protection under the First Amendment. This protection differs significantly from commercial solicitation, which can be more readily restricted. "The mere fact that the ordinance covers so much speech raises constitutional concerns, wrote Justice Stevens in the landmark Watchtower Bible & Tract Society v. Village of Stratton (2002) case, highlighting how requirements to obtain permits before engaging in door-to-door advocacy fundamentally conflicts with our conception of a free society. This case built upon decades of precedent established in cases like Lovell v. City of Griffin (1938), Schneider v. State(1939), and Cantwell v. Connecticut (1940), where the Court consistently struck down ordinances requiring permits for door-to-door solicitations, particularly those involving religious expression. Private Property Considerations The application of these constitutional principles becomes more nuanced in the context of private property, such as apartment communities. While public spaces must generally respect constitutional freedoms of expression, private property owners maintain certain rights to control access and activities on their premises. Key factors affecting an apartment community s ability to restrict canvassing include: 1. Property Access Structure: Communities with truly private roads and gated access may have greater latitude in restricting entry than those with public access points. 2. Local and State Regulations: Regulations vary significantly by jurisdiction. Some municipalities specifically exempt religious and political canvassers from solicitation restrictions, while others include them in "no solicitation ordinances. 3. Reasonable Time, Place, and Manner Restrictions: Even when canvassing must be permitted, property owners may implement reasonable restrictions regarding when and how such activities occur, provided these restrictions don t effectively eliminate the ability to canvas. Best Practices for Property Managers Property managers seeking to balance resident privacy with legal compliance should consider these approaches: 1. Review Local Laws: Understand specific municipal and state regulations governing solicitation and canvassing in your jurisdiction, as these vary widely. 2. Differentiate Commercial and Noncommercial Activities: Policies should clearly distinguish between commercial solicitation (which can generally be prohibited) and protected noncommercial canvassing. 3. Implement Reasonable Restrictions: Rather than blanket bans, consider time limitations (e.g., no canvassing after 8 PM) and registration requirements that don t impose undue burdens. 4. Educate Residents: Inform residents about their individual rights to refuse engagement with canvassers while respecting the broader legal framework permitting such activities. 5. Consult Legal Counsel: Given the complex interplay between constitutional rights and property management, seek legal advice when developing solicitation policies. The Resident Perspective Individual residents maintain the right to refuse interaction with canvassers. While the constitutional framework may permit canvassing within the community, no resident is obligated to engage with canvassers who approach their door. Property managers should ensure residents understand they can: Post individual "No Soliciting signs on their specific units Verbally decline conversations with canvassers Report harassment or persistent unwanted contact to management Conclusion The tension between solicitation bans and constitutional protections for religious and political expression creates an ongoing challenge for apartment community management. While complete prohibition of noncommercial canvassing likely exceeds legal boundaries, thoughtful policies can balance resident privacy concerns with constitutional requirements. Property managers should approach this issue with careful consideration of local regulations, the physical structure of their communities, and the important distinction between commercial solicitation and constitutionally protected expression. By developing nuanced policies rather than blanket prohibitions, communities can navigate this complex legal terrain while maintaining a positive living environment for residents. Disclaimer: This article provides general information for educational purposes only and should not be construed as legal advice. Consult with a qualified attorney for guidance on specific situations.

Federal Budget Cuts Threaten Core Affordable Housing Programs Nationwide

In its latest proposal, the White House has outlined $163 billion in reductions to nondefense discretionary spending, with housing and community development programs bearing a significant portion of the cuts. The proposed budget includes sweeping eliminations and consolidations across HUD and USDA housing initiatives, signaling a dramatic shift in the federal role in affordable housing. Major Reductions and Eliminations 1. HUD State Rental Assistance Block Grant: -$26.7 Billion The proposal restructures HUD s rental assistance programs including tenant-based, project-based, elderly, and disabled housing into a State Rental Assistance Block Grant. States would receive lump-sum funding with broad discretion, capped at two years of rental support for able-bodied adults. This change not only reduces federal oversight but also incentivizes states to assume a greater share of responsibility, potentially resulting in service gaps and uneven access across regions. 2. Community Development Block Grant (CDBG): -$3.3 Billion The complete elimination of the CDBG program would affect over 1,200 local governments that rely on flexible funding to support housing rehabilitation, infrastructure, and neighborhood revitalization. The proposal criticizes CDBG for lack of targeting and misallocation of funds, despite the program s historic value in addressing low-income community needs. 3. HOME Investment Partnerships Program: -$1.25 Billion The elimination of HOME, the largest federal block grant for affordable housing development, would directly impair the ability of localities to build and preserve affordable rental and ownership housing. Eliminating the HOME Program would also significantly impact a major source of secondary financing for LIHTC projects. The justification centers on regulatory burdens and the belief that states can address housing needs more efficiently without federal intervention. 4. Native American and Native Hawaiian Housing Grants: -$479 Million The proposed budget cuts competitive tribal housing assistance and eliminates the Native Hawaiian Housing Block Grant, citing inefficiencies and the presence of only one grantee. This disproportionately impacts Indigenous populations already facing severe housing shortages. 5. Homeless Assistance Program Consolidations: -$532 Million By consolidating existing homeless assistance programs into a narrower Emergency Solutions Grant (ESG) framework with a two-year cap, the proposal risks destabilizing long-term housing solutions and could roll back progress in ending chronic homelessness. The streamlined model focuses on short-term emergency aid, leaving fewer resources for permanent supportive housing. 6. Rural Development Housing Programs: -$721 Million Reductions to USDA rural housing loans, grants, and vouchers would scale back federal engagement in underserved rural areas. The budget prioritizes infrastructure but eliminates smaller, less economically impactful programs such as self-help housing and rural business grants. 7. Additional Cuts Surplus Lead Hazard and Healthy Homes: -$296M - Program labeled as obsolete. Self-Sufficiency Programs: -$196M - Deemed duplicative and ineffective at tracking outcomes. Pathways to Removing Obstacles (PRO) Housing: -$100M - Cut for perceived alignment with DEI-focused policies. Fair Housing Grants (FHIP and Training Academy): -$60M - Eliminated in favor of retaining only enforcement through FHAP. Implications for Housing Access and Equity These proposed cuts reflect a strategic realignment away from federal direct assistance toward state-centered administration and privatized solutions. While proponents argue for efficiency and local control, critics warn of several adverse effects: Reduced Housing Availability: The elimination of HOME and CDBG will shrink the pipeline for new affordable units and rehabilitation projects. Increased Inequity: Block grants without federal regulation risk deepening disparities across states, especially for marginalized populations. Weakened Fair Housing Enforcement: Defunding FHIP undermines outreach, education, and legal advocacy needed to combat discrimination. Vulnerability of Rural and Tribal Communities: Rural America and indigenous populations may lose vital, otherwise inaccessible support. Threat to Homeless Prevention Goals: Shifting focus away from long-term housing solutions could undercut national goals to reduce homelessness. Conclusion If enacted, the budget proposal would represent one of the most significant federal affordable housing support retrenchments in recent history. While it promises state flexibility and fiscal discipline, the risk to vulnerable populations already strained by high housing costs could be severe and lasting. Should these changes advance, stakeholders in the affordable housing sector should prepare for heightened advocacy and strategic adaptation.

Multifamily Housing Projects Subject to Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973

Introduction Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973 is a foundational federal civil rights law that prohibits discrimination based on disability in programs and activities that receive federal financial assistance (FFA). In the context of multifamily housing, Section 504 imposes critical accessibility and nondiscrimination requirements on housing providers whose properties are developed, operated, or otherwise supported through federal funds. Understanding which multifamily housing projects are subject to Section 504 is essential for ensuring compliance and upholding the rights of individuals with disabilities. Owners and managers often are unsure whether their property falls under Section 504. This article offers a comprehensive list of properties that must comply with the requirements of the Section 504 statute. Applicability of Section 504 in Multifamily Housing Not all multifamily housing developments fall under the purview of Section 504. Only those properties that receive federal financial assistance whether directly from a federal agency or indirectly through a state or local government are subject to its requirements. The following types of multifamily housing projects are covered: 1. HUD-Assisted Multifamily Housing Multifamily projects that receive funding through programs administered by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) are unequivocally subject to Section 504. This includes: Project-Based Section 8 Housing Assistance Payments Section 202 Supportive Housing for the Elderly Section 811 Supportive Housing for Persons with Disabilities HOME Investment Partnerships Program (HOME) Community Development Block Grant Program (CDBG) Housing Opportunities for Persons With AIDS (HOPWA) Projects under these programs must comply with both physical accessibility standards and operational nondiscrimination requirements. 2. Mortgage Insurance Programs Section 504 applies to programs and activities that receive federal financial assistance, including housing programs administered by the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). FHA-insured multifamily properties fall under this category because the Federal Housing Administration provides federal financial assistance through mortgage insurance. FHA insured programs subject to Section 504 include: Section 207 Rental Housing Insurance Section 213 Cooperative Housing Insurance Section 220 Rehabilitation and Neighborhood Conservation Housing Section 221(d)(3) and (d)(4) Mortgage Insurance for Rental and Cooperative Housing Section 231 Housing for Elderly Persons Section 232 Mortgage Insurance for Nursing Homes, Intermediate Care Facilities, and Board and Care Homes Section 234 Mortgage Insurance for Condominiums Section 236 Rental Housing 3. USDA Rural Development (RD) Properties Multifamily properties financed through the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Rural Development programs such as the Section 515 Rural Rental Housing Program also fall within the scope of Section 504. These properties must meet physical accessibility standards, ensure non-discriminatory policies and practices, and provide reasonable accommodations to applicants and residents with disabilities. 4. Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) Projects (Under Specific Conditions) The LIHTC program itself does not constitute federal financial assistance under Section 504. However, when LIHTC developments are combined with other sources of federal funding (such as HOME or CDBG), the portion of the property funded with such assistance or potentially the entire development becomes subject to Section 504 requirements. 5. Public Housing Agencies (PHAs) Section 504 covers public housing developments and programs administered by PHAs, including the Housing Choice Voucher (HCV) program. PHAs are responsible for ensuring that sufficient accessible units are available and that reasonable accommodations are provided to individuals with disabilities. Under the Housing Choice Voucher (HCV) program, when a tenant with a disability requires a modification to a unit to make it accessible, the responsibility for the cost depends on several factors: If the landlord is not receiving federal financial assistance directly (which is typical under the HCV program), they are not subject to Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act. In this case: The landlord is not required to pay for modifications, but must allow reasonable modifications at the tenant s expense under the Fair Housing Act, unless doing so would pose an undue administrative or financial burden. The PHA may use funds (if available and if policy allows) to pay for modifications as a reasonable accommodation. Other sources, such as state or local programs, nonprofits, or disability advocacy organizations, may also assist with funding. So, unless the PHA steps in or there s an alternative funding source, the cost of a reasonable modification typically falls on the tenant but the landlord cannot legally prohibit the modification if it is reasonable and necessary for the tenant s disability. 6. State and Local Government-Funded Projects Using Federal Pass-Through Funds Any multifamily housing project funded through state or local entities utilizing federal grant programs must comply with Section 504. This includes housing initiatives financed through state housing finance agencies or municipal governments administering federal housing resources. Core Requirements of Section 504 Compliance Multifamily housing projects covered under Section 504 must adhere to various physical, operational, and programmatic accessibility requirements. These include: Accessible Units A minimum of 5% of total units must be fully accessible to individuals with mobility impairments. A minimum of 2% must be accessible to individuals with hearing or visual impairments. Design and Construction Standards New construction and substantial rehabilitation must comply with the Uniform Federal Accessibility Standards (UFAS) or other approved standards. Reasonable Accommodations Housing providers must make reasonable policy and procedural modifications to allow individuals with disabilities equal access to housing and services. Effective Communication Providers must take steps to ensure effective communication with applicants and residents with disabilities, including the provision of auxiliary aids and services when necessary. Conclusion Compliance with Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act is not optional for multifamily housing providers receiving federal financial assistance. It is a legal obligation and a moral imperative that helps ensure equal access to housing opportunities for individuals with disabilities. Owners, developers, and managers of covered properties must proactively meet physical and programmatic requirements.

Understanding Tariffs and Their Impact on Construction Costs

What Are Tariffs? A tariff is simply a tax imposed on imported goods. When products like building materials enter U.S. ports, paying the applicable tariff is a standard part of the customs process. Historical Context Tariffs have deep roots in American history. From the colonial era through the early 1900s, they served as the federal government s primary revenue source. They were relatively straightforward to enforce even before modern technology, as customs officers could inspect incoming shipments at ports and collect the appropriate fees. The federal government s limited taxing authority under the Constitution meant that a modern income tax was not legally permissible until the 16th Amendment was enacted in 1913. The Decline of Tariffs Despite their historical importance, tariffs have several inherent problems that led to their declining use over the past century: They disadvantaged U.S. agricultural interests and exporters as other countries implemented retaliatory trade barriers. The tax burden fell disproportionately on lower-income individuals who spend more of their income on basic necessities. They couldn t generate sufficient revenue to fund modern government operations. When the global economy faltered in 1930, many nations, including the U.S., implemented protective tariffs with the Smoot-Hawley Act. Most economists view this wave of protectionism as a contributing factor to the severity of the Great Depression. Learning from this experience, the U.S. and other advanced economies gradually reduced trade barriers during the postwar period to foster economic cooperation and peace. Current Tariff Landscape Even during periods of free trade enthusiasm, tariffs never disappeared entirely. They remained relatively low in recent years, dropping to 1.5% in 2017 after decades of bipartisan efforts to establish global trade agreements. The Trump administration increased rates to approximately 3% during his previous term, which President Biden largely maintained. According to the Yale Budget Lab, the Trump administration s announced policies would raise the average tariff to 22.5% higher than during the Smoot-Hawley era and roughly equivalent to 1909 levels. Implementation Authority The scale of newly announced tariffs is significantly larger than previous ones. They affect nearly all goods from every country worldwide and invoke emergency authority not previously used for this purpose. Tariffs Impact on Construction Costs Tariffs increase construction costs through several key mechanisms: Direct price increases on imported construction materials like steel, aluminum, lumber, and other building products. These higher costs are typically passed along to developers and ultimately to end consumers. The specific impact depends on several factors: Which materials are targeted The tariff rate percentages Availability of domestic alternatives Proportion of imported versus domestic materials used The recent tariffs on imports from China (20%), Mexico, and Canada (25%) have significant implications for construction. According to the National Association of Home Builders, these tariffs could increase builder costs by approximately $7,500 to $10,000 per home for residential construction. This impact is substantial because approximately 7% of all goods used in new residential construction are imported. Critical materials like softwood lumber come predominantly from Canada (72% of imports), while gypsum for drywall is mainly sourced from Mexico (74% of imports). Multifamily Construction Impact For multifamily construction specifically, with 46% of materials sourced from these countries and 35-50% of project costs tied to finished materials, tariffs could increase material costs by 7.5%, potentially raising total construction budgets by 3-4%. Broader Effects Beyond core construction materials, reciprocal tariffs may also influence other building-related imports, such as carpeting, electrical outlets, security equipment, furniture, and tools. Projects that have already been awarded but are not yet started are likely to experience the most significant impact. Industry forecasts suggest the construction industry will feel the brunt of tariff policy changes in late 2025 and early 2026. Meanwhile, due to tariff-related inflation concerns, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain stable interest rates through most of 2025. Recent Developments Homebuilders have been relieved, as Canada and Mexico were exempted from the latest round of tariffs, protecting key lumber and drywall component imports. Additionally, a carveout exists for lumber and copper imports. These tariff developments are challenging the U.S. housing market, which is already struggling with supply constraints and affordability issues. Developers with affordable multifamily housing projects in the pipeline or underway but for which materials have not yet been purchased should prepare for these possible increases. Developers facing this uncertainty should take a proactive, strategic approach. Here are some of the steps they should consider: 1. Lock in Pricing Where Possible Negotiate Early Procurement Contracts: Secure pricing and delivery timelines now for materials that may be subject to tariffs. Bulk Purchasing: If financially feasible and storage is available, purchase critical materials before the tariff is implemented. 2. Revisit and Update Budgets Include Contingency Allowances: Adjust budgets to account for a potential spike in material costs (e.g., steel, aluminum, electrical components). Run Revised Pro Formas: Model project feasibility under different tariff scenarios to understand the margin of financial risk. 3. Communicate with Key Stakeholders Inform Lenders and Syndicators: Ensure your financial partners know potential cost escalations and any resulting impact on project viability or timelines. Coordinate with HFAs and Local Agencies: If the deal includes LIHTCs or public funding, discuss possible adjustments or relief options (e.g., basis boosts, revised gap financing). 4. Evaluate Alternative Materials and Suppliers Source Domestic Alternatives: Tariffs often target imported materials. Switching to local or tariff-exempt sources could mitigate cost hikes. Value Engineering: Reassess design specs to identify non-critical elements where substitutions could reduce costs. 5. Monitor Policy and Industry Updates Stay Informed: Watch for updates on tariff decisions and industry responses through trade associations (e.g., NAHB, NMHC). Engage in Advocacy: Support efforts to exempt affordable housing materials from tariffs or seek policy carve-outs. 6. Build Schedule Flexibility Buffer Time for Delays: Tariffs often disrupt supply chains, so build in extra time for procurement and delivery to avoid construction slowdowns. 7. Document Impacts Track Cost Changes: Keep records showing cost increases due to tariffs this can be useful when requesting additional funding or extensions from oversight bodies. Being proactive can help developers manage risk rather than be blindsided by rising costs. In this environment, a smart developer remains nimble, communicates clearly, and plans for the worst while hoping for the best.

Want news delivered to your inbox?

Subscribe to our news articles to stay up to date.

We care about the protection of your data. Read our Privacy Policy.